So, the ‘Open’ Strait of Hormuz Lasted for What, 60 Minutes Total?

Following the rushed announcement of a breakthrough ceasefire in Donald Trump’s war with Iran on Tuesday evening, world markets reacted with their trademark blind optimism: Oil prices fell sharply and stocks rallied as everyone shared a nice, reciprocal back-patting session. Of course, this all happened because it was tied to assumptions that our federal government and its leaders are operating in the sort of way you’d expect from serious professionals, which has seemingly been a tough assumption for global titans of industry to break themselves of, even with Trump proving relentlessly that he doesn’t apply one iota of thought to the global economy before he acts. The last 24 hours have nicely demonstrated the crash back to reality: You can say “ceasefire,” and you can claim that global shipping of oil and goods through the Strait of Hormuz are about to resume, but when they don’t resume, it exposes just how empty both your threats and supposed diplomatic breakthrough really are. Already, oil futures are climbing once again, and it increasingly looks like both the U.S. and Iran agreed to a “ceasefire” expecting vastly different terms and conditions. How long before Trump’s trigger finger becomes unbearably itchy once more?

Israel in particular has jumped at the chance to not just continue hostilities with Hezbollah in Lebanon, but actively step up the intensity of its campaign of strikes there, capitalizing on the U.S. claim that the ceasefire was never meant to extend to that part of the conflict–in the last day alone, hundreds of civilians there have reportedly been killed by indiscriminate Israeli fire. They’re operating as if they genuinely intend to scuttle any ceasefire in the interest of bringing the U.S. immediately back into the fight, with PM Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday saying it was “not the end” of the conflict, and that Israel would continuing “achieving all of our objectives,” by agreement “or by resuming the fighting.” Officials from both Iran and Pakistan, which helped broker the ceasefire deal, have both claimed that the ceasefire was supposed to apply to Lebanon as well, while Vice President JD Vance made the extraordinary admission yesterday of pure diplomatic incompetence, saying that there had been a “legitimate misunderstanding” over whether Lebanon was included. As he put it on Wednesday: “I think this comes from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think that the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t. We never made that promise.”

Is the open Strait of Hormuz in the room with us right now?

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— Bradley P. Moss (@bradmossesq.bsky.social) Apr 8, 2026 at 2:06 PM

Some high, high-level stuff there, from one of our diplomatic leaders who will be meeting Iranian officials in Islamabad on Friday to discuss the ceasefire. Meanwhile, Iran has seized on the continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon as justification for ordering the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed, which continues to choke the world economy of not just Middle Eastern oil, but also critical goods such as fertilizer. Almost nothing about when and how the strait would conceivably reopen has been ascertained. Will Iran indeed be charging $2 million tolls to each oil tanker passing through, as stated in their 10-point plan that Trump initially called a “workable basis on which to negotiate”? And how will any of this be thrown to the wind if Pete Hegseth orders the commando raid he’s threatening in order to retrieve Iranian uranium and nuclear material?

For now, one thing is seemingly clear enough: Although a small handful of ships may have passed through the strait in the short period after the ceasefire was announced, they’re sure as hell not passing through it right now, rendering what was literally the primary stated goal of that ceasefire (opening the strait) completely unachieved. Hundreds of vessels remain sitting there in stasis as tensions and tempers inevitably heat up once again.

Already, the threats are flowing back out of the mouths of top U.S. politicians. Vance, supposedly a key part of the delegation meeting to discuss a long-term peace plan tomorrow, has already said the ceasefire will end if Iran doesn’t open the strait, backing the Trump administration into yet another corner. As he put it to reporters yesterday: “The president is very, very clear the deal is a ceasefire, a negotiation. That’s what we give, and what they give is that straits are going to be reopened. If we don’t see that happening, the president is not going to abide by our terms, if the Iranians are not abiding by their terms.”

Trump, likewise, has been raging on Truth Social about the apparent lack of progress, although has gone rather quiet on Thursday–likely in embarrassment, given that Iran has not kowtowed to his latest demands. Around midnight, he let the following rant loose, promising that “the shootin’ starts” if Iran does not comply: “All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.”

And the Strait of Hormuz, which did not open

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— Matt Leys (@mattleys.bsky.social) Apr 8, 2026 at 5:42 PM

What seems to be increasingly clear here is that the U.S. government was the most desperate party to reach an agreement for a ceasefire in Iran–so desperate, in fact, to avoid having to go through with Trump’s bloodthirsty, genocidal promise that “a whole civilization will die tonight” that they hit “publish” on said announcement without seemingly confirming anything with Iran about how said ceasefire would operate. They didn’t reach an agreement on whether Lebanon was involved in the ceasefire. They didn’t reach an agreement on how shipping would work in the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. They sure as hell didn’t reach any kind of agreement about the collection of nuclear material, that’s for damn sure. It doesn’t seem like either side got much further than the word “ceasefire” before blasting it out to the world, and then immediately beginning to undermine any value it might bring to either of them.

The only thing seemingly holding off the next wave of missiles and bombs is the thought that … JD Vance and Jared Kushner … are going to bring their mighty diplomatic powers to bear with Iranian negotiators over the weekend. Just imagine how many “legitimate misunderstandings” might result! Oh boy, we’re doomed, aren’t we?