Finance

The European Central Bank is now making the economic case for decarbonisation. Not as climate policy. As monetary policy. Frank Elderson, ECB board member, argues in the Financial Times that Europe's dependence on imported fossil fuels is a structural threat to price stability (👉 https://lnkd.in/eKWWjKbh). The data is damning: energy price shocks pushed euro area inflation to 10.6% in October 2022. Every geopolitical tremor in the Middle East shows up in European energy bills. And the ECB is caught in an impossible bind: tighten to fight inflation and deepen the slowdown, ease to support growth and entrench inflation. The solution is not better forecasting models or finetuned monetary policy. It is cheaper energy. Spain shows what is possible. Wholesale electricity prices in early 2024 were approximately 40% lower than they would have been had wind and solar generation remained at 2019 levels ( 👉 https://lnkd.in/edXgxh9q). Once the infrastructure is built, the energy itself is virtually free. Volatile global commodity markets simply become less relevant. Elderson is explicit: €660 billion per year in clean energy investment sounds large. But Europe already spends nearly €400 billion annually on fossil fuel imports, money that leaves the continent and buys geopolitical vulnerability. Analysis in the UK shows that for every pound invested in sustainable energy, benefits outweigh costs by a factor of 2.2 to 4.1 ( 👉 https://lnkd.in/emEXVfiw). This is precisely what I argued in my piece for Triodos a few weeks ago: Europe's crisis response has been backwards. We keep treating energy dependence as a shock to manage rather than a structural problem to fix. (👉https://lnkd.in/ehFqA6iY) The ECB cannot decarbonise Europe. What it can do is name the conditions: keep the ETS, mobilise capital toward renewable capacity, strip out fossil fuel subsidies, and stop confusing cheap fossil fuels with affordable energy. If people need help with energy costs, target it: don't suppress the price signal that drives the transition. The cheapest energy is the energy we no longer have to import.

Energy is once again dominating headlines all over the world. Gas and oil prices are volatile, key shipping routes face geopolitical pressure, and policymakers are concerned about supply risks. The renewed uncertainty is a reminder of an uncomfortable reality: the next energy crisis isn’t an if – it’s a when, and a question of how prepared we are. A defining challenge of this decade, and one that now feels more urgent than ever, is how to build a resilient energy system. One that minimises structural dependencies and is designed for rising electricity demand. The imperative of our time: The more we electrify, the less we import fossil fuels. The less we import, the more resilient we become. The course of action is clear: ▪️ Relentlessly scale renewables: Slowing the buildout will not reduce costs. Quite the opposite – delay compounds system costs for the entire economy. ▪️ Fix the grids: As fast as possible, as efficiently as possible, and at the lowest possible cost. Before they become even more of a bottleneck. ▪️ Secure 24/7 electricity supply: When the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining, renewables need reliable backup in the form of battery storage and hydrogen-ready gas fired power plants. But gas should serve only as a backup, with renewables and batteries reducing its utilisation. ▪️ Reduce gas supply dependence with infrastructure and diversification: We must not replace old dependencies with new ones. Diversification of gas supplies is key. And the physical prerequisite is an import infrastructure with buffers. We need the planned LNG terminals, complemented by a nationally held gas reserve to help ensure secure supply in winter. ▪️ Electrify everything that makes sense: The more we can power with mostly homegrown electrons, the less dependent we become on fossil imports. Other energy import-dependent countries like Japan and China have electrification rates that are around 10 percentage points higher than Germany’s. This shows where the path forward lies. Electrification reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels, which in turn strengthens overall resilience. The time to act is now.

Every business, small or large, private or publicly listed has to choose between borrowed money (debt) and owner funds (equity), and in this sessions I start by looking at the fictional reasons (debt is cheaper than equity, debt increases ROE), the real reasons (the tax benefits of debt vs bankruptcy costs) and the frictional reasons (desire for control, subsidized debt, and protections against bankruptcy). I then look at tax rates (marginal and effective) in 2025 as well as developments on the default front (ratings changes, loan defaults) during the year, before chronicling what companies around the world looked like both on debt comfort ratios (interest coverage and debt to EBITDA) and debt loads (debt to capital). I close by looking at two developments - the immense cap ex in AI and the growth of private credit, and argue that there is a big market delusion embedded here, and when it corrects, it will create a clean up and shrinkage in both.

NEW RECORD: For the first time, fully electric vehicles outsold petrol-only cars in the EU in December. This is a genuinely historic moment for Europe’s transport transition and a powerful signal that the market, consumers, and policy frameworks are aligning towards cleaner transport. This milestone reflects a shift in consumer confidence and commitment to decarbonisation across the transport sector. It highlights the importance of continued support mechanisms, smart regulation, and investment in charging networks that make EVs a feasible choice for more people and businesses. It shows that policy works. Clear CO₂ standards, investment in charging infrastructure, and long-term signals to industry and consumers are translating into real market change. The direction of travel is unmistakable. That’s precisely why backtracking now would be a serious mistake. Rolling back targets, delaying standards, or creating regulatory uncertainty would not “help industry” — it would undermine investment decisions, slow down innovation, and risk Europe falling behind in one of the most important global growth markets of this decade. The transition is not finished. There are still challenges around affordability, infrastructure rollout, grid integration and skills. But these are reasons to stay the course and improve implementation, not to weaken ambition.

Should regulators certify agents like pilots or doctors? Doctors and pilots can’t take a single step without a license. Yet AI agents, increasingly making medical judgments or piloting decisions in simulations, face zero checks. That contrast keeps me up at night. I’ll be honest: I use AI every single day. It makes me faster, smarter, and more productive. But here’s the thought that gnaws at me: if my AI agent makes a mistake, do I own it? Or does no one? That gap—between power and accountability—is what worries me most. Licensing is more than bureaucracy. It’s a social contract. → A pilot’s license means: “You can trust me to carry 200 lives safely.” → A doctor’s license means: “You can trust me to act in your best interest.” → But when an AI agent makes a decision, who signs that contract? Here’s the deeper challenge people overlook: AI doesn’t stand still. A doctor retrains every few years. A pilot re-certifies on new aircraft types. An AI agent changes with every update, every dataset, every fine-tune. That means a license can’t be a one-time stamp. It has to be continuous, dynamic, evolving. Otherwise, yesterday’s “safe” agent could be tomorrow’s liability. In my opinion, here’s the only way forward: ✅ Extend human licenses in high-stakes domains. A doctor can vouch for their medical AI. A pilot can vouch for their cockpit assistant. Accountability flows through them. ✅ Require continuous certification of agents—not every decade, but every update. ✅ Guarantee human override. People must always have the right to say: “I want a human.” For me, this isn’t about slowing progress. It’s about protecting trust—the one currency we can’t afford to lose in the agentic era. Do we copy old licensing systems, or invent a new, living framework for AI accountability? #AI #Leadership #AIagents #FutureOfWork #Regulation #Ethics

The House Budget Bill explained… for utility-scale solar developers. This week, I’m sharing sector-specific explainers of the House-passed reconciliation bill to help each business and worker understand the impact. Yesterday, I covered the manufacturing provisions in the bill. Today, I’ll talk about utility-scale solar and tomorrow will be on the residential sector.   For large-scale solar developers, the biggest and most important provision is the functional elimination of the 48E and 45Y tax credits.   Instead of phasing out the credits, the text of the House bill requires that projects begin construction within 60 days after enactment of the bill AND be placed in service before January 1, 2029.   This effectively eliminates the credits for all new grid-scale solar energy projects going forward. As well as hundreds of projects already under development. Remember, if construction doesn’t begin within 60 days of President Trump signing the legislation, then the investment tax credit won’t be available. Full stop. This has implications for other aspects of the tax credit regime. The other provisions that restrict these credits — like ending transferability and the Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) rules — wouldn’t end up applying to 48E or 45Y because the credits would be eliminated before those restrictions would go into effect at the end of the year. Communities across the nation would lose $286 billion in local investments and 330,000 American jobs would be gone.   By 2030, America would produce 173 fewer TWh of energy annually (That’s about the size of Illinois’ energy consumption each year).   That’s the OPPOSITE of American energy dominance.   Let’s keep up the pressure: https://lnkd.in/evBBCp4h

The inventor of the SAFE note Adeo Ressi just eliminated the $150,000 and 6-month tax on starting a VC fund. This is huge, so we need to talk about it. Traditionally: ⏱️ Time: Launching a fund can take 6-12 months from thesis to first investment. 💸 Money: The VC setup cost ranges from $50,000 to $150,000+, with annual operations adding another $50,000+. 😵💫 Complexity: Requires three separate entities (LP, GP, and ManCo), complex legal agreements, and multiple regulatory filings. 🏦 Fund Size: There is a minimum fund size averaging $10M to make the fund economically viable. Each LP typically needs to invest $100K+ minimum because smaller checks are unprofitable due to per-LP administrative costs. 📊 Track Record: In order to raise this type of fund, new managers need larger LPs, and these larger LPs often need to see an existing successful investment track record, which some new managers don't have. These barriers have created a venture ecosystem where only those with established networks, significant resources, and/or institutional backing can participate. In 2025: Adeo came up with the Start Fund, a vehicle addressing all of the above head-on: ⏱️ Time: Set up a fund in ONE DAY vs. 6-12 months. 💸 Money: ZERO setup fees vs. $50K-$150K+. 😵💫 Complexity: ONE Delaware series vehicle vs. three separate entities, with an LPA just 1/3 the size. 🏦 Fund Size: Viable with just $250K+ vs. $10M minimum, and can accept smaller LPs (as low as $25K) because administration is streamlined 📊 Track Record: Fully portable track record that counts as fund one when you move to fund two. The benefits for emerging managers are clear: the barriers to entry are lower, giving a much wider pool of candidates a chance to create impact and shape the future. But here's why this matters for... LPs - The Start Fund allows LPs to participate with smaller check sizes, making it easier to diversify their portfolio - More of their capital actually goes to startups rather than overhead fees Startups: - This means more availability of capital from a wider range of sources - Access to a more diverse pool of venture investors with specialized expertise The Start Fund could fundamentally could change WHO gets to allocate capital to the next generation of startups, and WHO will benefit financially from it. I want to know what you all think. ------------- ✍️ Myrto Lalacos Follow for more content on launching and investing in VC firms

The digital bank is an outdated concept. Fast being replaced by the intelligent bank. The only question is how soon banks can manage the transition. Let’s take a look. I have broken down the main elements that make up the transition to the intelligent bank: 1. From transactional to predictive banking: digital banking enabled 24/7 self-service, but intelligent banking takes it further by predicting customer needs. AI-driven models analyse real-time data to offer personalised financial insights, proactive credit offerings, and automated investment recommendations. 2. AI-powered risk & fraud management: traditional risk assessment relied heavily on historical data. Intelligent banks use AI and machine learning to detect fraud in real time, identify suspicious patterns and prevent threats before they occur. 3. Hyper-personalisation: instead of generic offers, intelligent banks use AI to tailor financial products to individual customers (mass personalisation). 4. Seamless omni-channel experience: customers no longer interact with banks through a single channel. Intelligent banking ensures that a user can start a transaction on a mobile app, continue it via a chatbot, and complete it with a human advisor. All while maintaining a seamless, connected experience. 5. Autonomous banking operations: intelligent banks optimise back-office processes using cloud and AI automation, reducing human errors and significantly improving efficiency. Functions such as loan approvals, compliance checks, and reconciliation are increasingly self-regulated by AI-driven workflows.   Banks are in a time race. They not only need to move from digital to intelligent but also do it fast.   In doing so technology is the biggest dependency. One of the most interesting approaches I have seen on how to best support banks in this transition is Huawei's 4-Zero model, which is based on 4 main pillars:   1. Zero Downtime → Instant Readiness AI-powered predictive maintenance and cloud resilience ensure 24/7 availability, allowing banks to deploy and scale AI solutions without service disruptions. 2. Zero Wait → Faster Customer Experiences AI-driven real-time processing eliminates delays in transactions, approvals, and customer interactions, making banking services ultra-responsive. 3. Zero Touch → Reduced Operational Burden End-to-end automation using AI and machine learning removes manual intervention in processes like KYC, loan approvals, and compliance, freeing up resources for AI innovation. 4. Zero Trust → Seamless AI Integration AI-driven security frameworks continuously validate access, ensuring trust and compliance while enabling banks to integrate AI-powered services without increasing risk. The era of intelligent banking isn’t a distant future - it’s happening now. Banks will not be able to transform in months but getting a head start can make a difference. Opinions and graphics: Panagiotis Kriaris  #HuaweiMWC  #RAAS  #IntelligentFinance

Pick a company Read last 3 annual reports Read last 12 earnings call transcripts Find relevant information on the company Calculate key ratios for it Repeat for another company in the same sector See your understanding of the sector soar in a few weeks. Not sure how or where to start? 4 resources to help you 1) What to read in an earnings transcript  (using Eicher Motors as example) https://lnkd.in/gqaYwkNM 2) What to read in an annual report  (using Titan as example) https://lnkd.in/dtt674gu 3) Quick Financial Analysis using Screener  (using Ultratech Cement as example) https://lnkd.in/dFM9ypEa 4) Ratio Analysis: A Step by Step Guide in Excel  (Using SAIL as an example) https://lnkd.in/dd9HwiqC Subscribe to our channel for more such videos. https://lnkd.in/dR4nvGxd ------- Peeyush Chitlangia, CFA I help you build a career in Valuation and Investment Banking

Introducing the Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros, 2025 edition ✨ The music-tech sector has come of age. What started as a relatively niche investment thesis five years ago has matured into a powerhouse market segment, drawing tens of billions in capital since 2020. For five years, we at Water & Music have been mapping these shifting power dynamics through our “Music Tech Ownership Ouroboros” — a living document that traces the complex web of investments, ownership stakes, and strategic acquisitions shaping music and tech. Our latest update adds over 30 new relationships to the map, primarily from growth investments and M&A deals in 2024. The takeaway: Private equity firms and major labels are locked in a battle for control over independent music infrastructure. As indie market share keeps climbing, owning the tech backbone is becoming as valuable as owning the actual rights. Highlights from 2024 include: - Hellman & Friedman's majority stake in Global Music Rights — making GMR the third PRO owned by a private equity firm - Virgin Music Group's acquisitions of Downtown Music ($775M), [PIAS], and Outdustry - Flexpoint Ford's growth investments in Create Music Group ($165M) and Duetti ($34M) - KKR's acquisition of Superstruct Entertainment ($1.4B) and debt financing in HarbourView Equity Partners ($500M) - EQT Group and TCV's co-ownership of Believe (alongside CEO Denis Ladegaillerie), as part of taking Believe private - Vinyl Group's acquisitions of Serenade, Mediaweek Australia, Funkified Events, and Concrete Playground Link to the full interactive chart with sources is in the comments. Would love to hear what you think, and if any of these deals feel particularly standout or surprising to you! #musicbusiness #musicindustry #musictech #privateequity #musicinvestment #musicrights