Key insights from Mendix’s 2020 Developer Drought Index
You may have heard that Silicon Valley is in the midst of a developer drought. But the Valley is not alone; developer talent across the U.S. heartland has dried up. In fact, the top 10 U.S. counties with the highest developer demand per capita aren’t even in California.
A recent report by Mendix identified new hiring hotspots and a changing U.S. map for tech talent. States in the U.S. heartland are actively seeking developer talent, though some are slow to adopt 100% remote work. In the wake of COVID–19, many are reassessing work-life opportunities, leaving densely populated cities to work and live in more rural areas.
I recently had a great discussion with Sheryl Koenigsberg, head of global product marketing at Mendix, to make sense of the “Developer Demand Index” findings. Below we speculate on the future of developer work, and how low-code platforms may be the oasis many talent-thirsty companies seek.
‘Developer Demand Index’ Study
The “Developer Demand Index” sought to identify locations where developer talent is needed the most. The process involved a geographic analysis of 2,000 of July 2020’s job ads for U.S. software developers.
The study found high developer demand and short supply in middle America; South Dakota, Nebraska and Utah were among the top states with the lowest supply to demand.
At a county level, the highest developer demand was in Cumberland County, New Jersey; Minnehaha County, South Dakota; and Pontotoc County, Mississippi.
The study demonstrated how more established tech hubs—Silicon Valley and Austin, for example—have a better balance of talent demand and supply.
“The study confirmed unpopular theories that I had,” said Koenigsberg. “Developer drought is not a Silicon Valley or coastal-only problem; smaller metros throughout the country are experiencing the same problem.”
Conditions for a Drought
Why do states in the nation’s heartland have a developer drought to begin with? I assumed that a lower average salary in middle America would deter developers, but Koenigsberg said the conditions are more complex.
“I don’t necessarily see a correlation between average salary and developer drought,” she said. Rather, new tech hubs continue to form wherever larger enterprises can get tax breaks. Other regional perks could include local government startup incentives or university partnerships.
Tech certainly has a history of revitalizing less dense areas with new hubs. Take Google’s expansion into Austin, Amazon’s takeover of Seattle’s South Lake Union neighborhood or SpaceX’s remote Starship site in Boca Chica, Texas. Naturally, these areas attract the requisite talent and encourage other companies into the fold as well.
For example, the report speculates South Dakota state could be a new Silicon Prairie hotspot. “A vibrant tech & startup scene, local talent, and the lowest COVID–19 rates are all driving the economic surge in this state,” read the report.
With remote work and social distancing brought on by COVID–19, technology companies are adapting and the urgency to cluster in certain locales may dissipate.
COVID–19 and Remote Work
Software was already eating the world. But with COVID–19, it’s eating physical reality itself.
With COVID–19 forcing many companies 100% online, the need for new software is skyrocketing like never before. Google, Facebook and many others have enacted stay-at-home plans for most of 2021. After the crisis, remote work will be a more permanent reality for many.
While COVID–19 benefited tech, many brick-and-mortar businesses were less prepared. We’re now seeing the frailties of old systems, described Koenigsberg, and the need to replace paper-based or manual operations with digitized versions. Consumer-facing companies that did not vigorously embrace digital transformation before COIVD–19 are now in a tight spot.
Low-Code Waters Fill a Developer Drought
According to Derek Roos, CEO of Mendix, “the ‘Developer Demand Index’ shows that companies need to think differently about how and where to engage skilled tech workers in 2021 and beyond. Traditional development paradigms basically fall apart when you’re dealing with mobile or remote workflows.”
As I covered recently, COVID–19 is only one of many factors spurring a low-code revolution. By utilizing visual-based models, “citizen developers” can construct applications. This enables a business analyst, for example, to string together an internal application without jumping through the traditional IT hoops. Koenigsberg identifies other low-code benefits:
- Hire Local: If tools are less impenetrable, companies can retrain local employees, helping recover the developer gap and negating the need to hire externally.
- Collaboration: Low-code aids remote work, enabling pair programming where teams work on the same model simultaneously.
- Domain Expertise: Citizen developers with niche domain knowledge can better optimize applications to their industry needs. Knowing a factory production yield, for example, can help better construct a manufacturing application.
- Women in Tech: Koenigsberg notices significantly more female involvement at low-code themed events. Hopefully, low-code can have a balancing effect on gender participation in tech.
Final Thoughts
The Mendix “Developer Drought Index” revealed areas of high demand and short supply throughout the U.S. Interestingly, 92% of the job ads analyzed in the study required a specific location. Regardless, the report concludes there are compelling “opportunities for companies and individuals to decentralize talent away from established tech hubs using virtual teams and cloud technology.”
Low-code seeks to democratize software development to keep deployments on pace with the intense demand for software. Of course, low-code is no cure-all, and Developer Drought locations will likely still seek external or offshore hiring to supplement. However, low-code may offer the respite needed during uncertain times.
