Threat modeling is a process that far few developers seem to pursue, but it is a process that helps you and your team to model all potential threats to your application. Essentially, threat modeling is your thinking through all of the potential threats against an application. Doing so is virtually as easy as putting together a list of threats in a structured manner that lets you assess any perceived risks, allowing you to formulate how you are going to respond to the threats.
Ultimately, through threat modeling, you are optimizing network security by identifying objectives and vulnerabilities and creating measures to prevent the effects of threats to the system. Through this definition, anything described as a threat has the potential to be malicious to your organization and data systems; for example, incidental occurrences like the failure of a storage device–which can compromise the integrity of the entire enterprise.
The reasons for threat monitoring may be pretty obvious, but any lack of progression here is quite common.
Threats are one of the significant factors that led companies to spend $89.1 billion on enterprise security solutions. Gartner predicts threats will reach $96.3 billion by the end of 2018. According to Raytheon’s 2018 Study on Global Megatrends in Cybersecurity, 36% of senior IT and cyber professionals identified malicious or criminal insiders as a top cyber threat. Even with that knowledge, many organizations lack insider threat policies and policy enforcement tools, and they struggle to align security and IT responsibilities to tackle the threat effectively.
Threat monitoring allows you the ability to determine which threats might exist for your application. Knowledge is power, and it’s always better to know beforehand what dangers might await you. Understanding these threats lets you decide whether you will accept the risk.
For a threat to exist, there must be a combination of the following where the combined likelihood and impact are significant enough in which to do something. A framework for understanding threat modeling, includes: asking what you are working on, what might go wrong and what to do about it, as well as if a job is well done.
According to the Open Web Application Security Project (OWASP), threat modeling is a process that lets you continually refine your processes based on what you have done so far: “Starting with all possible vulnerabilities is usually pointless, as most of them are not attackable by the threat agents, protected by a safeguard, or do not lead to a consequence. Therefore, it’s generally best to start with the factors that make a lot of difference.”
Those steps include assessment scope, identity threat agents, existing countermeasures, identifying vulnerabilities, prioritizing identified risks and identifying countermeasures to reduce the threat.
In the assessment scope, you’ve got to understand the price of what’s at stake. Identifying tangible assets, such as databases of information or sensitive files, is usually straightforward, and realizes the capabilities provided by the application.
Next, identify possible threats or attacks. A crucial part of the threat model is characterizing different groups of people who might be able to attack your application–this may include insiders and outsiders, performing both inadvertent mistakes and malicious attacks. During this phase of development, consider existing countermeasures that allow you to determine what possible exploitable vulnerabilities exist that must be addressed. Through your search, look for weaknesses and connect any attacks you’ve identified to the negative consequences you’ve identified.
When identified, risk management can be prioritized. For each threat, determine possible outcomes and the impact of those to understand how to mitigate these issues. Next, look for ways to reduce any future risks.
While many of the threats might appear to be security related, many others have more natural explanations. Threat assessments can include power outages or even a flooded server room. These and other factors can lead to severe threats to your organization.
When to Model the Threat?
Threat modeling is often best at the beginning of a project, but it’s better to conduct a threat modeling project halfway through a project or even at the end than not at all. Threat modeling at the end of a project can have benefits, such as understanding the architecture and how data flows through it. However, threat monitoring at the end of a project can lead to finding more work may be required to fix poor design decisions not caught at the beginning.
For those entering into threat modeling, conduct your first session on an existing project, letting you experiment with a threat modeling session so that you can familiarize yourself with everything required. This way, you’ll be better prepared to analyze all assets and flow of data to assess the risks. Once the process is pounded out, you’ll have a better chance of succeeding in your threat modeling of a new project. You’ll also be able to better prepare for threats that may exist in the design phase of the project. From here, over time, you’ll begin to take into account threats during the initial design of a new feature.
Approaching the Threat Model
Each method of approach depends on the organization and its goals. Large organizations usually have previously established processes for threat modeling. Smaller organizations new to threat modeling can begin by hiring in experience to initiate the task or seeking outside support from experts or those who can advise the program.
Next, you need to understand who the users are within the system–regular users, administrators, outsourced contractors and perhaps hackers with apps or other tools looking for vulnerabilities within your network. There are also other actors, including disgruntled former employees.
Defining the user actors is important since missing a group can mean you might be missing an entire category of threats. Also, consider the various types of hackers or groups of hackers in your models.
Data and Information Flows
At this point in the threat modeling process, track each of the various data flows running through the system. For each of these, you need to know where the data goes. What does it interact with or encounter along the way? Then look to identify where data can leak or where it might be exposed. More data components create more opportunities for a hacker to gain access to the information.
Individual data means the information flows differently based on the architecture and the specific situation. One example might include a request from a user’s browser where the cookie is sent through and interacts multiple components as it does.
For each data flow, search opportunities for any actors to gain hold of valuable information. If anything makes you frown, step back through the process and move that threat through until you can mitigate the frowning moment.
Threat List Complete
When the threat list is observed and complete, prioritize the list from very unlikely to improbable to not likely. No matter the probability of the risk, work through the risk as a real possibility. Do so to consider the real impact of the threat and what it may mean to the organization. Is the company going to crash and burn completely? Will every bit of data get pulled into a ransom situation? Place a number or priority of the impact, such as low, medium and high.
When you have your risk list, manage the risks by:
- Accepting: If the risk is quite low, accept the potential impact. It’s also possible you’ll find the potential negative user impact is more important. You can also reassess later.
- Transferring: Perhaps another team is responsible for managing a particular risk. If that team can pick up the defense easily, outsource it.
- Avoiding: Don’t do this. If you must, consider complete structural changes to your data flows to avoid altogether avoiding risk. This might mean architectural changes are required or killing a particular feature altogether so as not to avoid danger.
- Reducing: Take actions to lower the risk by lowering the likelihood or impact of the risk. You may need to take multiple steps to reduce the threat. No matter the action, effort is required to reduce the risk.
After threat modeling is complete, don’t stop. Keep working because threats and actors change. List all potential issues or risks that must be addressed and work them into your plan.
Finally, remember you should be careful with whom you share your threat modeling plan. You never know where that information might end up otherwise, or who might be a threat to your organization and its data.
One last note: The final result and usefulness of threat modeling depend almost entirely on the parameters established. Defining the values for the probability of a threat and impact may be subjective, but let your experience, input from colleagues and experts, and your gut guide you.
